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The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 TARP(ed) And Feathered As We Near Crunch Time
Posted by The Mole on October 6, 2008
Category: Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 1 Comment

Stock Market BearAfter the initial fanfare and hype, the markets gave the thumbs down to the belated passing of the TARP bailout plan last Friday. This damning verdict shows the consequences of delaying and diluting the original admittedly flawed proposal. Simply put it had no “shock and awe” left to give the market a lift. Beg, borrow and bailout


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Signs Of Deflation Ahead
Posted by The Mole on October 3, 2008
Category: Shares & Indices, Oil, Gold & Commodities, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 1 Comment

Oil, gold and equities were all down sharply yesterday. These are meant to be negatively correlated and act as hedges i.e. if you are long one and short another you shouldn’t lose on both sides on the trade! Mind you that’s the kind of thinking that led to LTCM going bust, whose 10th anniversary is next week. This trifecta of falling prices points to the dreaded deflationary beast rearing its ugly head in 2009!


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 The $700 Billion Dollar Man With Strings
Posted by The Mole on October 2, 2008
Category: Shares & Indices, Oil, Gold & Commodities, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 2 Comments

And so the mother of all bailouts metamorphosis’s into the mother of all compromises as Hank Paulson’s 3 pager swells to 451. Good enough for the US Senate who voted in favour of it last night by a wide margin of 74 to 25. I don’t mean to rain on Hank and Ben’s parade but history shows us that well-meaning, but hastily-drafted, knee-jerk laws often have profound unintended consequences


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 To Bailout Or Not To Bailout. That Is The Question
Posted by The Mole on October 1, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole Comment

Whipsaw, yo-yo, see-saw say the commentaries this morning. In fact it’s just plain volatility ahead of the Senate vote on the new strings-attached-mother-of-all-bailouts Bill tonight at 8pm London Time. The expectation is that the modified plan will pass as it has the backing of most of the key movers and shakers on Capitol Hill. The sweeteners for reluctant free market Republicans and Democrats looking for re-election are:


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Bailout Falls At The First Hurdle
Posted by The Mole on September 30, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole Comment

Haven’t we suffered enough? You really couldn’t make this stuff up if you tried. 666 may be the number of the beast but 777 was the amount the Dow Jones fell yesterday. The US House of Congress told the Street to drop dead by a 228-205 margin of rejection. The vote shows the:


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Bailouts R Us
Posted by The Mole on September 29, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 4 Comments

We had the now-traditional weekend bailout. But this time there was a fresh European twist to it as the banking crisis went global. Bradford & Bingley were nationalized and Belgium’s Fortis was bailed out by the Benelux taxpayers.

What caused the downfalls this time


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Bailout Chaos As WaMu Goes Wallop
Posted by The Mole on September 26, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 9 Comments

Dow futures are trading down 153 points as overnight news focuses on a possible delay in the TARP bailout. What looked like a done deal yesterday afternoon appears to have degenerated into a serious bunfight. The deal is said to be in “limbo” as brinksmanship and internal Republican Party wrangling takes centre stage. Never underestimate the capacity of politicians to make a dire situation even worse


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Anxiety As We Reach High Noon
Posted by The Mole on September 25, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 4 Comments

The lacklustre and soggy markets remain like a rabbit in the headlights; afraid to rally and unable to sell off in the traditional sense. Mind you it’s worth noting the dire performance of our old chums AIG (down 34%) and WaMu (down 29%) on the day. WaMu’s rating were cut to junk status by rating agency Fitch last night as it seems that they are the ones left with no date for the ball


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 Indices Fall Because Of Industrials, Not Financials
Posted by The Mole on September 24, 2008
Category: Economics, Shares & Indices, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 1 Comment

After the price action seen lately, a decline of 162 points in the Dow hardly seems worth a mention. BUT the decline was lead by the industrials and basic materials sectors, NOT by financials. This suggests broader market concerns about the underlying weakness of the US economy. Money markets remain frozen despite the massive injections of cash by central banks around the world


The Mole is the man in the know. Unlike most of the Paddy Power traders he doesn't spread bet for a living. Instead he works for a well-known Dublin institution where he heads a desk that regularly trades over €100 million a day.

The Mole says he mainly trades currencies but, as the markets are so closely related, he keeps a close eye on stocks and Oil too.
 The Dollar Dives And Commodities Soar
Posted by The Mole on September 23, 2008
Category: Shares & Indices, Oil, Gold & Commodities, Sub-Prime & Credit Crunch, Market Watch by The Mole 1 Comment

Equities are shivering again as the likelihood of recession in the US looms large and doubts grow over the viability of Paulson’s TAB (toxic assets bailout) plan. The Dow Jones lost over 2.5% yesterday while the FTSE fell over 3.5%.

Oil had is biggest one day gain EVER (October’s contract spiking to over $130 at one point) on fears that


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